This Changes Everything

Doug Duncan's withdrawal from the Governor's race today changes everything in an election year that has already seen turmoil.

The ultimate political question right now is whether or not Martin O'Malley is challenged in the Democratic primary. Regardless of the wagon circling done by some of the major politicians today, there are many Democrats right now who are not behind O'Malley, as evidenced by Duncan's rising and rising poll numbers. Had Duncan not had to withdraw, I still believe that he would have won the primary in September. Will Simms carry the torch? Will Franchot abandon the Comptroller race to take on his real nemesis? Or will O'Malley have a primary similar to the one Kathleen Kennedy Townsend four years ago, where a political nobody ran against her and secured twenty percent of the vote? Who knows where we go from here.

Now, O'Malley can go back to his Rose Garden strategy and wait to engage until later in the fall. Which is fantastic from a Republican perspective. That strategy does not work for Townsend, and while O'Malley is a more accomplished candidate, a lot of people see through his schtick and have noted O'Malley's litany of failures over the last six years. Combine that with O'Malley's temper, and if he waits until September to engage it is going to be good political theater to watch.

For our side, this news is good; the Governor will have an easier time defeating O'Malley than he would have in defeating Duncan. I just hope that Duncan can deal with this problem and that he feels a sense of peace now that he has exited from the stage.