Monday, December 24, 2007

Here's a Happy Yuletide Topic

I know that none of the participants here are Christian, but still this does not exactly scream "Peace on Earth" (H/T Instapundit):
If a nuclear war between Israel and Iran were to break out 16-20 million Iranians would lose their lives - as opposed to 200,000-800,000 Israelis, according to a report recently published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which is headed by Anthony H. Cordesman, formerly an analyst for the US Department of Defense. The document, which is largely theoretical due to the lack of verified knowledge in some areas - specifically in terms of Israel's nuclear capability - paints various scenarios and attempts to predict the strategies of regional powers, as well as the US.

The report assesses that a nuclear war would last approximately three weeks and ultimately end with the annihilation of Iran, due to Israel's alleged possession of weapons with a far larger yield. Israel, according to the assessment, would have a larger chance of survival. The report does not attempt to predict how many deaths would eventually be caused by possible nuclear fallout.

Even if Iran gained the means and knowledge to create nuclear weapons, according to the report it would still be limited to 100 kiloton weapons, which can cause a far smaller radius of destruction than the 1 megaton bombs Israel allegedly possesses.

What's ultimately disturbing to me about this scenario actually goes beyond the horrific casualty rates. It's the fact that ration of losing about 80 Iranian civilians for every Israeli citizen killed probably would not be a deterrent effect for the Iranian regime, much in the same way that I doubt a nuclear North Korea would be deterred from the slaughter of its population in using nuclear weapons on South Korea or Japan.

The only thing going for the good guys in keeping the Iranians in check right now are the Russians, and I'm not exactly pinning my hopes on Team Putin to do the right thing these days....

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