Brian Griffiths: Bracketed Thinking

So the additional bracket comments beyond this were not forthcoming last night. But I have had some time to think about the bracket, and here are some additional thoughts:

I spoke of Davidson being underseeded. But there really was not a lot of wiggle room to move them if you look at the S-curve. They most reasonable move could have been to a # 12 seed, because they have a better profile than Illinois, Arkansas, and Long Beach State. And while Davidson's profile is better than George Washington's, Old Dominion clearly would have moved up to an # 11 had GW dropped down. The Terps just got unlucky in that the other # 13's (Albany, Holy Cross, and New Mexico State) aren't as good as Davidson.
Bank on it; the Wildcats win the #8-#9 game in the West Region.
I still can't understand how Syracuse, Drexel, and to a certain extent Florida State were left out of the field. both Syracuse and Florida State beat the best teams in their conference (Syracuse won 10 games in the Big East). Drexel played more road games than home games and went 14-5 in road/neutral games.
That being said, who should have been left out? The only clear arguments can be made that Illinois and Arkansas should have stayed home. Arkansas had 13 losses and just got lucky that they made a run to the SEC Championship game. Regardless, since they did make it both teams should have been 13 seeds.
The lack of respect for Drexel, Syracuse, and Florida State carried over to the NIT field as well, as all three schools were passed over as # 1 seeds. Syracuse and Florida State wound up as # 2's and Drexel wound up as a # 3, potentially sending them on the road in the 2nd Round to Oklahoma State. (Air Force, Clemson, Mississippi State, and West Virginia wound up as the top seeds). On top of that, they have to play a streaking NC State team in the first round.
Don't cry for Air Force not making the NCAA tournament. When you lose you last four, you have nobody to blame but yourself, even if they did have the best RPI (30) not to make the tournament.
Florida as the overall # 1 seed in the tournament is puzzling. Look at the losses the top 4 seeds had:
- Overall # 1: Florida: Kansas, at Florida State, at Vanderbilt, at LSU, at Tennessee
- Overall # 2: North Carolina: Gonzaga(N), at Virginia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, at Maryland, at Georgia Tech
- Overall # 3: Ohio State: at North Carolina, at Florida, at Wisconsin
- Overall # 4: Kansas: Oral Roberts, at DePaul, at Texas Tech, Texas A&M
Ohio State loses to thee teams on the road all year, and they get stuck with the overall # 3. Meanwhile, North Carolina loses six games and winds up # 2 overall, presumably only because of the head-to-head win over Ohio State. And look at the RPI of those four teams:
- Overall # 1: Florida: 6
- Overall # 2: North Carolina: 3
- Overall # 3: Ohio State: 1
- Overall # 4: Kansas: 10
Figure that out.
Four games see mid-major teams taking on each other.
- Midwest: # 5 Butler vs. # 12 Old Dominion
- West: # 4 Southern Illinois vs # 13 Holy Cross
- South: # 8 BYU vs # 9 Xavier
- South: # 7 Nevada vs # 10 Creighton
Niagara got completely hosed; they wind up in the play in game despite having a better RPI than three #16's and two # 15's.
I wonder if Louisville is helped or hindered by the fact they have to play in the home arrival of their arch rivals in their first round pod...
Is it just me or does Winthrop have a legitimate chance to get to the Elite Eight?
Should Maryland be in the West region? Southern Illinois should have been (relatively) protected in the Midwest, but could not be assigned to that region since the Missouri Valley Conference is hosting the regional.
On the top half of the East Region, every time but Eastern Kentucky has appeared in the Final Four at some point. (Even New Mexico State, in 1970 with two other juggernaut programs, Jacksonville and St. Bonaventure).
For the first time in a long-time Gonzaga is actually an underdog team. The last time three times were as low as a # 10, they played the second weekend(1999, 2000, and 2001).