The Niches of 2008
As of right now and as I see it, there are four major candidates (declared or otherwise) for the Republican nomination for President in 2008. Each one of them fits into a specific niche as we approach the 2008 primary contests:
The Frontrunner: Senator John McCain(Arizona)
Nobody six years ago could have expected Senator McCain to wind up as the Republican front-runner in the post-Bush era. However, McCain has slyly converted himself from the maverick Republican media darling to...the frontrunning Republican media darling. McCain is one of the few Republicans who gets consistently favorable press from the mainstream media, and he has capitalized on that press to make himself, for the moment, the man to beat. But McCain does not have the nomination sewn up by any stretch of the imagination. For example, McCain has a noted problem with freedom of speech with McCain-Feingold, his opposition to the 2001 tax cuts, opposition to the death tax repeal, his position as one of the "Gang of 14", and some curious statements about global warming. None of that is going to be particularly helpful in getting your base Republican voter to turn out in the primaries or the caucuses.
McCain's biggest problem right now is that he is the candidate who wins if he gets the nomination; but is he actually able to win the nomination?
The American Hero: Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (New York)
For the first eight months of 2001, it looked like the political career of Mayor Giuliani was coming to an end. Prostate cancer had forced him out of the 2000 race for U.S. Senate against Hillary Clinton. A bitter divorce turned into a national spectacle. While his crimefighting tactics were successful, his popularity in New York City was dwindling as he term ended.
On that tragic September morning, everything changed. Now, Mayor Giuliani was a national hero for his response and coordination to these dastardly attacks. And he remains so to this day.
Giuliani's leadership abilities are phenomenal, and he deserves much of the praise that has been heaped upon him in the last five years. However, that is not going to translate into a successful Presidential campaign so long as he is running as a Republican. His positions on abortion, taxes, and gun control are all outside of the mainstream of your average primary voter. Like McCain, Giuiani's high poll numbers are caused because of name recognition, not agreement with particular policy stances. With all of the issue stances he brings to the table, I'm not sure that a Republican like Giuliani can be successful.
The Establishment Candidate: Governor Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)
Once upon a time, before open primaries and when conventions meant something, the Eastern Establishment ran the Republican Party, not the conservative wing. That meant that candidates who were fiscally conservative, but socially moderate-to-liberal when the norm, not the exception. It's hard to get a read on Governor Romney's positions on some social issues, but he is clearly being backed by the Eastern Establishment. Many such members backed his father, former Michigan Governor George Romney, during his campaign for President in 1968.
Romeny is unique for an establishment candidate. Four years in public office. A Mormon who wound up in Massachusetts by way of Michigan and Utah. Clearly, he has the fiscal and business bonafides to be a top-tier candidate. The question comes down to whether or not the evangelical Christian base will be open to a Mormon nominee.
The Insurgent Conservative: Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (now of Virginia)
It's hard to imagine Speaker Gingrich, twelve years after the Contract with America, could wind up as an insurgent candidate for President. But the opportunity is rich for Gingrich to walk away with the nomination. The conservative base has been somewhat disaffected by this administration's more moderate stances on a number of issues, not the least of which has been federal discretionary spending. And Gingrich has been willing to criticize the administration on certain aspects of policy, which has endeared himself to this base.
The Speaker also has the perfect opportunity to be the "idea candidate" during the upcoming primary cycle. As the author of the Contract, Gingrich has always been on the forefront of Republican leadership in brining new ideas to the table. Given what we have seen from the administration (and also from Congressional leadership in recent months), the time may be right for a candidate who embodies conservative ideas to become a serious candidate for the nomination.
Gingrich still has some problems he will need to overcome. He has been married three times, which will turn off some. He also carries around some of the baggage and the negative imagery he collected during his time as speaker. However, he has also done a pretty good job rehabilitating his image over the last five years.
What about the other candidates; Senator Frist, Governor Huckabee, Congressman Tancredo, Senator Brownback or Senator Hagel? None of the other candidates have a broad enough appeal, either on their personalities, their job performance, or their issues, to seriously believe that they have a serious chance to secure the nomination at this time. We are still at least sixteen months prior to the first caucus and/or primary, and a lot of candidates will jump in and jump out, and a lot of issues on the national stage will change. At the moment, this is just one guy's view of the political landscape.
The Frontrunner: Senator John McCain(Arizona)
Nobody six years ago could have expected Senator McCain to wind up as the Republican front-runner in the post-Bush era. However, McCain has slyly converted himself from the maverick Republican media darling to...the frontrunning Republican media darling. McCain is one of the few Republicans who gets consistently favorable press from the mainstream media, and he has capitalized on that press to make himself, for the moment, the man to beat. But McCain does not have the nomination sewn up by any stretch of the imagination. For example, McCain has a noted problem with freedom of speech with McCain-Feingold, his opposition to the 2001 tax cuts, opposition to the death tax repeal, his position as one of the "Gang of 14", and some curious statements about global warming. None of that is going to be particularly helpful in getting your base Republican voter to turn out in the primaries or the caucuses.
McCain's biggest problem right now is that he is the candidate who wins if he gets the nomination; but is he actually able to win the nomination?
The American Hero: Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (New York)
For the first eight months of 2001, it looked like the political career of Mayor Giuliani was coming to an end. Prostate cancer had forced him out of the 2000 race for U.S. Senate against Hillary Clinton. A bitter divorce turned into a national spectacle. While his crimefighting tactics were successful, his popularity in New York City was dwindling as he term ended.
On that tragic September morning, everything changed. Now, Mayor Giuliani was a national hero for his response and coordination to these dastardly attacks. And he remains so to this day.
Giuliani's leadership abilities are phenomenal, and he deserves much of the praise that has been heaped upon him in the last five years. However, that is not going to translate into a successful Presidential campaign so long as he is running as a Republican. His positions on abortion, taxes, and gun control are all outside of the mainstream of your average primary voter. Like McCain, Giuiani's high poll numbers are caused because of name recognition, not agreement with particular policy stances. With all of the issue stances he brings to the table, I'm not sure that a Republican like Giuliani can be successful.
The Establishment Candidate: Governor Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)
Once upon a time, before open primaries and when conventions meant something, the Eastern Establishment ran the Republican Party, not the conservative wing. That meant that candidates who were fiscally conservative, but socially moderate-to-liberal when the norm, not the exception. It's hard to get a read on Governor Romney's positions on some social issues, but he is clearly being backed by the Eastern Establishment. Many such members backed his father, former Michigan Governor George Romney, during his campaign for President in 1968.
Romeny is unique for an establishment candidate. Four years in public office. A Mormon who wound up in Massachusetts by way of Michigan and Utah. Clearly, he has the fiscal and business bonafides to be a top-tier candidate. The question comes down to whether or not the evangelical Christian base will be open to a Mormon nominee.
The Insurgent Conservative: Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (now of Virginia)
It's hard to imagine Speaker Gingrich, twelve years after the Contract with America, could wind up as an insurgent candidate for President. But the opportunity is rich for Gingrich to walk away with the nomination. The conservative base has been somewhat disaffected by this administration's more moderate stances on a number of issues, not the least of which has been federal discretionary spending. And Gingrich has been willing to criticize the administration on certain aspects of policy, which has endeared himself to this base.
The Speaker also has the perfect opportunity to be the "idea candidate" during the upcoming primary cycle. As the author of the Contract, Gingrich has always been on the forefront of Republican leadership in brining new ideas to the table. Given what we have seen from the administration (and also from Congressional leadership in recent months), the time may be right for a candidate who embodies conservative ideas to become a serious candidate for the nomination.
Gingrich still has some problems he will need to overcome. He has been married three times, which will turn off some. He also carries around some of the baggage and the negative imagery he collected during his time as speaker. However, he has also done a pretty good job rehabilitating his image over the last five years.
What about the other candidates; Senator Frist, Governor Huckabee, Congressman Tancredo, Senator Brownback or Senator Hagel? None of the other candidates have a broad enough appeal, either on their personalities, their job performance, or their issues, to seriously believe that they have a serious chance to secure the nomination at this time. We are still at least sixteen months prior to the first caucus and/or primary, and a lot of candidates will jump in and jump out, and a lot of issues on the national stage will change. At the moment, this is just one guy's view of the political landscape.
posted by Brian Griffiths at 12:45 PM
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