Trends look bad for O'Malley

The latest Rasmussen Poll has Governor Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley deadlocked at 45 a piece among likely voters.....but that's not the most interesting statistics in the Rasmussen release.

That would be this:

Still, a majority (53%) of voters in Maryland favor repeal of the recently passed national health care bill, slightly lower than the support for repeal found nationwide. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal. This includes 42% who Strongly Favor repeal and 36% who Strongly Oppose it.

If a liberal state like Maryland isn't even on board with the Health Care bill, it means that you;ve got a lot of Democrats who are not on board with the direction of their party. And while disssatisfaction with national Democrats likely won't hurt O'Malley in 2010 as disssatisfaction with national Republicans did with Ehrlcih in 2006, some of the sins of Obama will be laid at the feet of O'Malley.

But that's not all:

Just 49% of Maryland voters favor passage of an immigration law like the new one in Arizona for their state, six points lower than support nationally. Thirty-eight percent (38%) oppose such a law, and 12% are not sure.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters in the state who favor a law like Arizona's back Ehrlich, while 80% of those opposed to such a law support O'Malley.

But nearly two-thirds (66%) of voters in Maryland support the central provision of the Arizona law, the requirement that local police check the immigration status of anyone pulled over for a traffic violation or some other kind of violation whom they suspect of being here illegally. Twenty-seven percent (27%) oppose that requirement.

Emphasis mine.

So even in a state as liberal as Maryland, a supermajority of voters support the basic tenet of the immigration legislation passed in Arizona. An interesting statsitic given the fact that illegal immigration issues rear their head from time to time in the area.

This poll doesn't suggest that it is a done deal, but the numbers are starting to look more and more yeasty for the re-election of Governor Ehrlich this November. Now go do your part to help.

Ignore the Hype: This is a Dead Heat

I think we all know what the headline from this morning's Washington Post story said about the Governor's race: O'Malley has 8-point lead over Ehrlich among registered voters.

And it is in the headline that shows exactly why the headline is misleading, and why this race is already too close to call.

The key point of the headline and of the poll results as they are reported by John Wagner, Aaron Davis and Jon Cohen is that Martin O'Malley is far ahead of Bob Ehrlich when you restrict the data to registered voters; in that case, O'Malley has 49-41 lead. The problem with that part of the poll, however, is that while it deals with a statistically significant number of voters for the scope of a statewide race, the results are just that; registered voters.

That 49-41 number is not indicative of the people who are actually going to go vote in the polls on Election Day. As the Post story notes (but in the second paragraph, naturally) is that among those individuals who are certain to vote on election day, Bob Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley are tied 47-47.

Of course, a poll of registered voters and a poll of certain voters are both reasonably meaningless; the real action in polling is in the realm of likely voters, because those are the margins that make the difference in an election as close as this one. And for reasons that I cannot begin to fathom, the Post neglected to poll on the one number that would actually make for a relevant story.

Nobody should make too much out of this, but given the data that is available it is safe to say that this race is undoubtedly in the margin of error. Forget the headline, forget the hype, and forget the people trying to make too much out of the results of this poll; the race can't get any tighter than this, and O'Malley and Company are already feeling the heat as evidence by O'Malley's babyish rants on WTOP this morning.....

Ignore their will at your own risk

As Governor O'Malley continues to ignore the will of the voters and continues to try and tax and spend us to death, his poll numbers fall further into the crapper:

In a new poll by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategy, 37 percent of the people asked approve of the job the governor is doing, while 48 percent disapproved. Another 15 percent of people in the survey had no opinion.

O'Malley's approval numbers dropped after November's special session. That's when $1.4 billion in tax increases were approved to address a projected $1.7 billion structural deficit.

If the Democrats want to wax poetic about how the Governor is doing what's right and not what's popular, go right ahead. But it is looking more and more apparent that Ehrlich II will be starting in January 2011...

BREAKING: O'Malley approval plummets in new Gonzales Poll

Our friends over at Gonzales Research have released their October statewide poll as it relates to the upcoming Special Session. Of note, Governor O'Malley's approval rating has dipped to 46%; I believe that is lower than Governor Ehrlich's approval rating at any time during his four year term. Of special note:

When we asked those who disapprove of the job Governor O’Malley is doing why they felt that way, 61% said it was because of his proposal to raise taxes, 17% said it was because of his proposal to legalize slots, 12% said they generally don’t like his style or manner, and 9% specifically said they thought he was “arrogant.”

Amazing. Additionally, now fewer than half of Marylanders believe that our state is moving in the right direction.

I have made the entire poll available here.

The Most Useless Poll ever conducted

The polls the Sun usually conducts or reports on are usually terrible, but this is extra special:

The margin of error was 5.4 percentage points for the Democratic contest and 7.4 percentage points for Republicans. The Sun used OpinionWorks to conduct two city Democratic primary polls this summer, but this statewide survey of 335 Democrats and 177 Republicans was part of a separate poll initiated by a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization. It was conducted before Thompson entered the race.

So you have a poll whose sample size is about a quarter of the size it needs to be the size that it needs to be: you need to have at least 800 people surveyed in order to have a useful poll in a state the size of Maryland. On top of it, it was conducted before Fred Thompson entered the race, and he announced two weeks ago. Plus, the poll was conducted for some mysterious "nonpartisan, nonprofit organization" who is not mentioned in the article.

Nothing in this poll legitimately tells us anything. A completely useless poll, and it's really, really lame that Sun is reporting it like it is the gospel...