Taking Action

Since Martin O'Malley seems to be hellbent on brushing aside the continued MARC train issues to the point that one of these days #MARCfail is going to actually become a trending topic on Twitter, Governor Ehrlich is actually trying to do something constructive; listen to MARC's customers through the creation of a "Commuters for Ehrlich" caucus of transit riders who are fed up with the continued failure of Martin O'Malley's MTA.

The group will be led by Craig Borne, who is featured in this video:



I have long been critical of the failures of Martin O'Malley's transit administration; and it is heartening that Governor Ehrlich is taking positive action to solve problems for Maryland.

Murphy Campaign loses its own argument

So the Brian Murphy campaign has been telling anybody who will listen that their guy can beat Martin O'Malley, whereas Governor Ehrlich can't. Somebody apparently did not tell their press shop, because I got this press release today straight from the Murphy campaign:

In the latest poll, O’Malley and Ehrlich were in a statistical dead-heat: 44% to 43%. However, only 28% definitely will vote for incumbent Governor O’Malley and 31% were firmly committed to former Governor, an “incumbent” once removed, Ehrlich.

In a match-up against Martin O’Malley, Brian Murphy trailed 44% to 25%, with 31% of voters undecided.

Kinda takes a hit to the electability argument, does it not? Probably something to do with the fact that, over the six-month course of this campaign, Murphy's name ID is hovering at 27%. Hard to imagine that if Murphy's name ID hasn't broken a third of the electorate in the last six months that the rate will continue to improve between now and the end of his campaign in September.

Makes you wonder how long before those few Murphy supporters out there realize that tilting at windmills with the potential spector of a second term for O'Malley is really worth it...

Trends look bad for O'Malley

The latest Rasmussen Poll has Governor Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley deadlocked at 45 a piece among likely voters.....but that's not the most interesting statistics in the Rasmussen release.

That would be this:

Still, a majority (53%) of voters in Maryland favor repeal of the recently passed national health care bill, slightly lower than the support for repeal found nationwide. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal. This includes 42% who Strongly Favor repeal and 36% who Strongly Oppose it.

If a liberal state like Maryland isn't even on board with the Health Care bill, it means that you;ve got a lot of Democrats who are not on board with the direction of their party. And while disssatisfaction with national Democrats likely won't hurt O'Malley in 2010 as disssatisfaction with national Republicans did with Ehrlcih in 2006, some of the sins of Obama will be laid at the feet of O'Malley.

But that's not all:

Just 49% of Maryland voters favor passage of an immigration law like the new one in Arizona for their state, six points lower than support nationally. Thirty-eight percent (38%) oppose such a law, and 12% are not sure.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters in the state who favor a law like Arizona's back Ehrlich, while 80% of those opposed to such a law support O'Malley.

But nearly two-thirds (66%) of voters in Maryland support the central provision of the Arizona law, the requirement that local police check the immigration status of anyone pulled over for a traffic violation or some other kind of violation whom they suspect of being here illegally. Twenty-seven percent (27%) oppose that requirement.

Emphasis mine.

So even in a state as liberal as Maryland, a supermajority of voters support the basic tenet of the immigration legislation passed in Arizona. An interesting statsitic given the fact that illegal immigration issues rear their head from time to time in the area.

This poll doesn't suggest that it is a done deal, but the numbers are starting to look more and more yeasty for the re-election of Governor Ehrlich this November. Now go do your part to help.

A Jobs Policy that will actually put people to work

Have you taken a look yet at Governor Ehrlich's Entrepreneur Agenda? You should, because it's the first time any statewide leaders have seriously come forth to address job creation to combat the O'Malley Recession:



Bob Ehrlich actually wants to do something to create an economic environment that will employ more Marylanders and improve the economic situation for Maryland's middle class families. Nothing sums up the current plight of small business owners than this:

Turning the economic tide requires a new approach to small business owners, who currently employ 1.2 million Marylanders. Since announcing his candidacy for Governor, Bob Ehrlich has met with more than 100 local entrepreneurs to discuss the hardships they face in Maryland. Nearly all of them believe they are an afterthought in the eyes of state government, and relay tales of being ignored, harassed, or given conflicting guidance from their state government.

And we are going to be able to do this through:

• Creating an attitude more conducive to small business development throughout State Government;
• Reversing the 20-percent sales tax, both as an incentive to bring small business back to Maryland, but to also provide a greater stimulus to spending an a better economic picture for Maryland families;
• Review current policies that bring irreparable harm to small businesses;
• Actually meeting with and discussing small business policies with small business owners.
  

In a nutshell, the next Ehrlich Administration will make owning a small business and creating jobs in Maryland easier. That is a far cry from what the O'Malleynomic antics of the current regime.

Why is this important? Because this is what the people want to talk about. The only thing that people around the state want to talk about right now is jobs, jobs, and jobs. The people of Maryland are fed up with Martin O'Malley and his inability to create a strong economic climate, and the people are fed up with Martin O'Malley and his administration continuing to adopt policies that harm the plight of Maryland's middle and working class families. And they are tired of Martin O'Malley trying to say that he's a jobs governor when so many Marylanders are unemployed due to his fiscal irresponsibility.

In the meantime, O'Malley flack Rick Abbruzzese has the unfortunate task of responding on behalf of the O'Malley-Brown campaign and hoping that his nose didn't grow:

"This is not a plan. Bob Ehrlich's so-called plan is all talk and no action - he is proposing a commission, a summit, a task force, three reviews and two explorations, but nothing to actually create jobs or help small businesses struggling because of the global recession."

Here's the pot calling the kettle block; because it was just last week that Martin O'Malley, after three years of destroying jobs, finally realized that jobs would be an issues in the campaign and responded by.....proposing a commission.

"This lip service is insulting because Maryland's small businesses and families expect and deserve more from a former governor. As governor, Bob Ehrlich actually proposed the largest-ever increase in state spending and increased taxes and fees that hurt Maryland's small businesses and families, while benefiting special interests. Now as a lobbyist, Bob Ehrlich has spent the last four years helping his clients export American jobs, bail out Wall Street banks, and defend giant oil companies.

Well, give the O'Malley/Democrat coordinated campaign one thing; they are coordinated. Never mind the fact that O'Malley and the Democrats are kings of special interests, the kings and queens of lobbying, and of course the drainers of oil recovery funds. But hey...Team O'Malley never let the facts get in the way of their goals, right?

"In stark contrast, Governor O'Malley has delivered results, including the Job Creation and Recovery Tax Credit to put unemployed Marylanders back to work and a rapid response small business loan guaranty program to get credit flowing again to our small businesses."

Martin O'Malley did in fact deliver results, if your idea of "results" is thousands of closed businesses, forcing Marylanders out of state, record unemployment, unconscionable and immoral tax increases, reduced tax revenues, and record budget shortfalls . To put it bluntly, the only result Martin O'Malley has delivered has proof that he is unprepared to lead Maryland out of the fiscal mess he has created.

Voters have a choice in this election. A choice between sticking with Martin O'Malley and his recession, or choosing Bob Ehrlich and change that will benefit all Marylanders. Click here to help Governor Ehrlich make that change.

Ignore the Hype: This is a Dead Heat

I think we all know what the headline from this morning's Washington Post story said about the Governor's race: O'Malley has 8-point lead over Ehrlich among registered voters.

And it is in the headline that shows exactly why the headline is misleading, and why this race is already too close to call.

The key point of the headline and of the poll results as they are reported by John Wagner, Aaron Davis and Jon Cohen is that Martin O'Malley is far ahead of Bob Ehrlich when you restrict the data to registered voters; in that case, O'Malley has 49-41 lead. The problem with that part of the poll, however, is that while it deals with a statistically significant number of voters for the scope of a statewide race, the results are just that; registered voters.

That 49-41 number is not indicative of the people who are actually going to go vote in the polls on Election Day. As the Post story notes (but in the second paragraph, naturally) is that among those individuals who are certain to vote on election day, Bob Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley are tied 47-47.

Of course, a poll of registered voters and a poll of certain voters are both reasonably meaningless; the real action in polling is in the realm of likely voters, because those are the margins that make the difference in an election as close as this one. And for reasons that I cannot begin to fathom, the Post neglected to poll on the one number that would actually make for a relevant story.

Nobody should make too much out of this, but given the data that is available it is safe to say that this race is undoubtedly in the margin of error. Forget the headline, forget the hype, and forget the people trying to make too much out of the results of this poll; the race can't get any tighter than this, and O'Malley and Company are already feeling the heat as evidence by O'Malley's babyish rants on WTOP this morning.....

O'Malley knows he's losing

Desperation is setting in early on the second floor....

The game of chess between the O'Malley and Ehrlich camps began today, with Governor O'Malley challenging Governor Ehrlich to a debate this Saturday during Ehrlich's radio show, with Governor Ehrlich countering with the offering of a mano-a-mano conversation between the two (which I, for one, would think would be fascinating radio).

Team O'Malley's challenge of a debate is a classic political gambit, trying to take the opposing candidate out of their comfort zone by being generally pesky and annoying.

However, there is one minor detail about the tradition of this gambit; it is invariably only played by a challenger or a candidate who is trailing in the polls. A strong incumbent would never play this card, particularly this early in the campaign.

Is Team O'Malley's opening gambit a tacit admission that their candidate is the underdog? Or is it merely a way to lower their campaign's polling and fundraising expectations? Only time will tell, but clearly it seems to be the opening salvo from a campaign that wants nothing to do with running on Martin O'Malley's record of failure, Martin O'Malley's record tax hikes, Martin O'Malley's record spending, and Martin O'Malley's inability to effectively govern.

Expect similar gambits from the O'Malley camp from here on out.

Maryland Dems soiling themselves with prospect of Ehrlich Running

In a nice moment of synergy, Center Maryland's centrist facade meets scare(d) tactics with this morning's advice that Bob Ehrlich should wait to run for Governor until 2014.

I'm not going to bother quoting the article, but I think the message is pretty clear: DEMOCRATS ARE TERRIFIED O'MALLEY IS GOING TO LOSE.

They may want to grab some clean underwear, too.....

Meaningless Numbers

The left has decided to examine Governor Ehrlich's chances of unseating Martin O'Malley next year, and Adam Pagnucco decided to start his analysis with the most meaningless statistic in all of politics: voter registration data.

Overall, the Democrats have an absolute majority (at 56.9%) and outnumber Republicans by better than two-to-one. But the total numbers mask the geographic domination of the Democrats and the regional isolation of the GOP.

The Democrats have more than 50% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Baltimore, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Montgomery, Prince George’s and Somerset Counties. Those jurisdictions account for 60% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 50% of registered voters in two jurisdictions: Carroll and Garrett Counties, which account for just 4% of the state’s registered voters.

Let’s lower the threshold to 40%. The Democrats have more than 40% of registered voters in 18 jurisdictions (all except Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Queen Anne’s and Washington Counties) that account for 88% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 40% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Harford, Queen Anne’s, Talbot and Washington Counties, which account for just 17% of the state’s registered voters.

All of which, statistically speaking, was incredibly similar to the numbers that then-Congressman Ehrlich faced in 2002 when he defeated Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Pagnucco goes on to continue with his analysis:

Registration does not always determine voting behavior. Maryland is a state in which Democrats can and do vote for Republicans, the most successful of whom has unquestionably been Bob Ehrlich. But all of the above means that the Democrats have a far broader reach across the state than does the GOP. Western Maryland is the only region in which the Democrats struggle to compete. The Republicans are non-competitive in three of the state’s four biggest jurisdictions (Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties) and lag Democrats in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, fast-growing Charles County and even some parts of the Eastern Shore. All of this is a hurdle that any statewide GOP candidate would have to overcome.

Which of course, is also completely meaningless. When you look at voting results, and not voting registration, you see a picture that is, statistically speaking, more of a level playing field for Republicans running in Maryland; particularly a more-moderate, high-name ID Republican such as Bob Ehrlich. And, of course you need to look no further than the aforementioned Anne Arundel County to notice that a Democratic-majority county has elected this decade a Republican County Executive, Clerk of the Court, Register of Wills, two Circuit Court Judges who ousted Democratic appointees, three Judges of the Orphans Court, four of seven County Council Members, a majority of the Delegates, half of the State Senators, and gave two solid majorities to Bob Ehrlich and George W. Bush, and even one to John McCain.

What does this all mean? It means that voter registration numbers as a means of determining voter performance are completely useless......which was something Pagnucco could have learned had he read my analysis from six months ago, the last time he tried this argument.

If Democrats are hanging their hat on voter registration numbers to bail them out next year, Bob Ehrlich and the Republican Party may be in better shape that even we think...

Now it gets Interesting

For a long time I was discussing the likelihood that Comptroller Peter Franchot would challenge Governor O'Malley in next year's Democratic primary. Well, it looks like the Governor is going to get a challenge.....not from the left, but from the right according to the Sun:

George W. Owings III, a former Democratic delegate and party leader from Calvert County, is “actively considering a challenge” to Gov. Martin O’Malley in next year’s election, the former majority leader told The Baltimore Sun.

The 64-year-old Vietnam war hero from Dunkirk, who served on Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.’s cabinet, said he was “45 to 60 days” away from deciding whether to challenge O’Malley in the 2010 Democratic primary. He acknowledged that the odds of anyone unseating the incumbent governor “are very long.”.....

....After serving in the House of Delegates from 1988 to 2004, Owings was Ehrlich’s secretary of the Maryland Department of Veterans Affairs. A conservative Democrat, Owings said he believes the state party has “strayed from its working class roots” under O’Malley’s leadership.

The former mortgage banker said he began mulling a challenge after the governor pushed unpopular tax hikes through the General Assembly in 2007 in order to confront the massive structural budget deficit he inherited.

“I see a lot of good, solid working-class Democrats with serious concerns about the direction we are taking,” Owings said. He said he has “the mechanics in place” for an organized campaign, including “some guarantees of operating money” from a “loosely knit financing committee.”

This is the best piece of news that opponents of Governor O'Malley could possibly hear. A bruising Democratic primary means there is a pretty good chance that O'Malley will need to waste financial and political capital running against a fellow Democrat, while the Republican candidate will be able to criss-cross the state introducing themselves to voters and stay above the fray......assuming we united behind one candidate (which is an altogether separate problem with all of the competing interests amount the Bob Ehrlich, Charles Lollar, and Mike Pappas camps).

And Owings isn't the only one contemplating a challenge. Former Prince George's County Executive Wayne Curry may jump into the fray too. Even usually reliable Democratic quote machine Matthew Crenson even concedes the following to the Sun:

“Even if they’re not true, the fact that there are so many rumors suggests that O’Malley is perceived as vulnerable,” Crenson said.

This is a good sign, but let's not bet the ranch that this is the be all and end all of the 2010 Election, either. Sure, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend may have been morally wounded when she gave up 20-percent of the priamry vote to grocery store clerk Raymond Fustero in 2002, but remember that incumbent Governor Parris Glendening bowled right through then Harford County Executive Eileen Rehrmann and former Redskin Ray Schoenke in the primary in his 1998 re-election campaign.

This is a positive development that O'Malley is drawing potential primary challengers, but there is a lot of work for Republicans to do over the next 18 months for us to be able to draw any benefit from it...

It keeps going, and going, and going....

Remember the Kangaroo Court? The special committee the General Assembly convened to investigate the legal firing of at-will government employees? Did you know that legal battles from that are still being played out?

It has been 18 months since former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. left office, but the legal battle over whether he illegally targeted longtime state employees for political firings continued Monday in a case to determine the extent of the General Assembly's subpoena powers.

The Maryland Court of Appeals, the state's highest court, heard arguments Monday about the refusal of two state employees to answer questions during a May 2006 hearing before a special legislative committee. The employees, who allegedly were dispatched to agencies to target political enemies for firing, have appealed a lower court decision compelling them to respond to the questions.

Why in the world has it taken this long for the case to wind its way through the appeals process? Why is the state still fighting this case years after the Committee's preordained decision was rendered to the public? Seriously, why is the battle over the Kangaroo Court still being played out through Maryland's Judicial System?

And perhaps a better question still is why has the General Assembly not convened a similar committee to investigate Governor O'Malley's identical actions, but that answer is rather self-explanatory...

Ignore their will at your own risk

As Governor O'Malley continues to ignore the will of the voters and continues to try and tax and spend us to death, his poll numbers fall further into the crapper:

In a new poll by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategy, 37 percent of the people asked approve of the job the governor is doing, while 48 percent disapproved. Another 15 percent of people in the survey had no opinion.

O'Malley's approval numbers dropped after November's special session. That's when $1.4 billion in tax increases were approved to address a projected $1.7 billion structural deficit.

If the Democrats want to wax poetic about how the Governor is doing what's right and not what's popular, go right ahead. But it is looking more and more apparent that Ehrlich II will be starting in January 2011...