Taking Action

Since Martin O'Malley seems to be hellbent on brushing aside the continued MARC train issues to the point that one of these days #MARCfail is going to actually become a trending topic on Twitter, Governor Ehrlich is actually trying to do something constructive; listen to MARC's customers through the creation of a "Commuters for Ehrlich" caucus of transit riders who are fed up with the continued failure of Martin O'Malley's MTA.

The group will be led by Craig Borne, who is featured in this video:



I have long been critical of the failures of Martin O'Malley's transit administration; and it is heartening that Governor Ehrlich is taking positive action to solve problems for Maryland.

Murphy Campaign loses its own argument

So the Brian Murphy campaign has been telling anybody who will listen that their guy can beat Martin O'Malley, whereas Governor Ehrlich can't. Somebody apparently did not tell their press shop, because I got this press release today straight from the Murphy campaign:

In the latest poll, O’Malley and Ehrlich were in a statistical dead-heat: 44% to 43%. However, only 28% definitely will vote for incumbent Governor O’Malley and 31% were firmly committed to former Governor, an “incumbent” once removed, Ehrlich.

In a match-up against Martin O’Malley, Brian Murphy trailed 44% to 25%, with 31% of voters undecided.

Kinda takes a hit to the electability argument, does it not? Probably something to do with the fact that, over the six-month course of this campaign, Murphy's name ID is hovering at 27%. Hard to imagine that if Murphy's name ID hasn't broken a third of the electorate in the last six months that the rate will continue to improve between now and the end of his campaign in September.

Makes you wonder how long before those few Murphy supporters out there realize that tilting at windmills with the potential spector of a second term for O'Malley is really worth it...

Trends look bad for O'Malley

The latest Rasmussen Poll has Governor Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley deadlocked at 45 a piece among likely voters.....but that's not the most interesting statistics in the Rasmussen release.

That would be this:

Still, a majority (53%) of voters in Maryland favor repeal of the recently passed national health care bill, slightly lower than the support for repeal found nationwide. Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal. This includes 42% who Strongly Favor repeal and 36% who Strongly Oppose it.

If a liberal state like Maryland isn't even on board with the Health Care bill, it means that you;ve got a lot of Democrats who are not on board with the direction of their party. And while disssatisfaction with national Democrats likely won't hurt O'Malley in 2010 as disssatisfaction with national Republicans did with Ehrlcih in 2006, some of the sins of Obama will be laid at the feet of O'Malley.

But that's not all:

Just 49% of Maryland voters favor passage of an immigration law like the new one in Arizona for their state, six points lower than support nationally. Thirty-eight percent (38%) oppose such a law, and 12% are not sure.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters in the state who favor a law like Arizona's back Ehrlich, while 80% of those opposed to such a law support O'Malley.

But nearly two-thirds (66%) of voters in Maryland support the central provision of the Arizona law, the requirement that local police check the immigration status of anyone pulled over for a traffic violation or some other kind of violation whom they suspect of being here illegally. Twenty-seven percent (27%) oppose that requirement.

Emphasis mine.

So even in a state as liberal as Maryland, a supermajority of voters support the basic tenet of the immigration legislation passed in Arizona. An interesting statsitic given the fact that illegal immigration issues rear their head from time to time in the area.

This poll doesn't suggest that it is a done deal, but the numbers are starting to look more and more yeasty for the re-election of Governor Ehrlich this November. Now go do your part to help.

A Jobs Policy that will actually put people to work

Have you taken a look yet at Governor Ehrlich's Entrepreneur Agenda? You should, because it's the first time any statewide leaders have seriously come forth to address job creation to combat the O'Malley Recession:



Bob Ehrlich actually wants to do something to create an economic environment that will employ more Marylanders and improve the economic situation for Maryland's middle class families. Nothing sums up the current plight of small business owners than this:

Turning the economic tide requires a new approach to small business owners, who currently employ 1.2 million Marylanders. Since announcing his candidacy for Governor, Bob Ehrlich has met with more than 100 local entrepreneurs to discuss the hardships they face in Maryland. Nearly all of them believe they are an afterthought in the eyes of state government, and relay tales of being ignored, harassed, or given conflicting guidance from their state government.

And we are going to be able to do this through:

• Creating an attitude more conducive to small business development throughout State Government;
• Reversing the 20-percent sales tax, both as an incentive to bring small business back to Maryland, but to also provide a greater stimulus to spending an a better economic picture for Maryland families;
• Review current policies that bring irreparable harm to small businesses;
• Actually meeting with and discussing small business policies with small business owners.
  

In a nutshell, the next Ehrlich Administration will make owning a small business and creating jobs in Maryland easier. That is a far cry from what the O'Malleynomic antics of the current regime.

Why is this important? Because this is what the people want to talk about. The only thing that people around the state want to talk about right now is jobs, jobs, and jobs. The people of Maryland are fed up with Martin O'Malley and his inability to create a strong economic climate, and the people are fed up with Martin O'Malley and his administration continuing to adopt policies that harm the plight of Maryland's middle and working class families. And they are tired of Martin O'Malley trying to say that he's a jobs governor when so many Marylanders are unemployed due to his fiscal irresponsibility.

In the meantime, O'Malley flack Rick Abbruzzese has the unfortunate task of responding on behalf of the O'Malley-Brown campaign and hoping that his nose didn't grow:

"This is not a plan. Bob Ehrlich's so-called plan is all talk and no action - he is proposing a commission, a summit, a task force, three reviews and two explorations, but nothing to actually create jobs or help small businesses struggling because of the global recession."

Here's the pot calling the kettle block; because it was just last week that Martin O'Malley, after three years of destroying jobs, finally realized that jobs would be an issues in the campaign and responded by.....proposing a commission.

"This lip service is insulting because Maryland's small businesses and families expect and deserve more from a former governor. As governor, Bob Ehrlich actually proposed the largest-ever increase in state spending and increased taxes and fees that hurt Maryland's small businesses and families, while benefiting special interests. Now as a lobbyist, Bob Ehrlich has spent the last four years helping his clients export American jobs, bail out Wall Street banks, and defend giant oil companies.

Well, give the O'Malley/Democrat coordinated campaign one thing; they are coordinated. Never mind the fact that O'Malley and the Democrats are kings of special interests, the kings and queens of lobbying, and of course the drainers of oil recovery funds. But hey...Team O'Malley never let the facts get in the way of their goals, right?

"In stark contrast, Governor O'Malley has delivered results, including the Job Creation and Recovery Tax Credit to put unemployed Marylanders back to work and a rapid response small business loan guaranty program to get credit flowing again to our small businesses."

Martin O'Malley did in fact deliver results, if your idea of "results" is thousands of closed businesses, forcing Marylanders out of state, record unemployment, unconscionable and immoral tax increases, reduced tax revenues, and record budget shortfalls . To put it bluntly, the only result Martin O'Malley has delivered has proof that he is unprepared to lead Maryland out of the fiscal mess he has created.

Voters have a choice in this election. A choice between sticking with Martin O'Malley and his recession, or choosing Bob Ehrlich and change that will benefit all Marylanders. Click here to help Governor Ehrlich make that change.

Ignore the Hype: This is a Dead Heat

I think we all know what the headline from this morning's Washington Post story said about the Governor's race: O'Malley has 8-point lead over Ehrlich among registered voters.

And it is in the headline that shows exactly why the headline is misleading, and why this race is already too close to call.

The key point of the headline and of the poll results as they are reported by John Wagner, Aaron Davis and Jon Cohen is that Martin O'Malley is far ahead of Bob Ehrlich when you restrict the data to registered voters; in that case, O'Malley has 49-41 lead. The problem with that part of the poll, however, is that while it deals with a statistically significant number of voters for the scope of a statewide race, the results are just that; registered voters.

That 49-41 number is not indicative of the people who are actually going to go vote in the polls on Election Day. As the Post story notes (but in the second paragraph, naturally) is that among those individuals who are certain to vote on election day, Bob Ehrlich and Martin O'Malley are tied 47-47.

Of course, a poll of registered voters and a poll of certain voters are both reasonably meaningless; the real action in polling is in the realm of likely voters, because those are the margins that make the difference in an election as close as this one. And for reasons that I cannot begin to fathom, the Post neglected to poll on the one number that would actually make for a relevant story.

Nobody should make too much out of this, but given the data that is available it is safe to say that this race is undoubtedly in the margin of error. Forget the headline, forget the hype, and forget the people trying to make too much out of the results of this poll; the race can't get any tighter than this, and O'Malley and Company are already feeling the heat as evidence by O'Malley's babyish rants on WTOP this morning.....

O'Malley knows he's losing

Desperation is setting in early on the second floor....

The game of chess between the O'Malley and Ehrlich camps began today, with Governor O'Malley challenging Governor Ehrlich to a debate this Saturday during Ehrlich's radio show, with Governor Ehrlich countering with the offering of a mano-a-mano conversation between the two (which I, for one, would think would be fascinating radio).

Team O'Malley's challenge of a debate is a classic political gambit, trying to take the opposing candidate out of their comfort zone by being generally pesky and annoying.

However, there is one minor detail about the tradition of this gambit; it is invariably only played by a challenger or a candidate who is trailing in the polls. A strong incumbent would never play this card, particularly this early in the campaign.

Is Team O'Malley's opening gambit a tacit admission that their candidate is the underdog? Or is it merely a way to lower their campaign's polling and fundraising expectations? Only time will tell, but clearly it seems to be the opening salvo from a campaign that wants nothing to do with running on Martin O'Malley's record of failure, Martin O'Malley's record tax hikes, Martin O'Malley's record spending, and Martin O'Malley's inability to effectively govern.

Expect similar gambits from the O'Malley camp from here on out.

Maryland Dems soiling themselves with prospect of Ehrlich Running

In a nice moment of synergy, Center Maryland's centrist facade meets scare(d) tactics with this morning's advice that Bob Ehrlich should wait to run for Governor until 2014.

I'm not going to bother quoting the article, but I think the message is pretty clear: DEMOCRATS ARE TERRIFIED O'MALLEY IS GOING TO LOSE.

They may want to grab some clean underwear, too.....

Meaningless Numbers

The left has decided to examine Governor Ehrlich's chances of unseating Martin O'Malley next year, and Adam Pagnucco decided to start his analysis with the most meaningless statistic in all of politics: voter registration data.

Overall, the Democrats have an absolute majority (at 56.9%) and outnumber Republicans by better than two-to-one. But the total numbers mask the geographic domination of the Democrats and the regional isolation of the GOP.

The Democrats have more than 50% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Baltimore, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Montgomery, Prince George’s and Somerset Counties. Those jurisdictions account for 60% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 50% of registered voters in two jurisdictions: Carroll and Garrett Counties, which account for just 4% of the state’s registered voters.

Let’s lower the threshold to 40%. The Democrats have more than 40% of registered voters in 18 jurisdictions (all except Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Queen Anne’s and Washington Counties) that account for 88% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 40% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Harford, Queen Anne’s, Talbot and Washington Counties, which account for just 17% of the state’s registered voters.

All of which, statistically speaking, was incredibly similar to the numbers that then-Congressman Ehrlich faced in 2002 when he defeated Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Pagnucco goes on to continue with his analysis:

Registration does not always determine voting behavior. Maryland is a state in which Democrats can and do vote for Republicans, the most successful of whom has unquestionably been Bob Ehrlich. But all of the above means that the Democrats have a far broader reach across the state than does the GOP. Western Maryland is the only region in which the Democrats struggle to compete. The Republicans are non-competitive in three of the state’s four biggest jurisdictions (Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties) and lag Democrats in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, fast-growing Charles County and even some parts of the Eastern Shore. All of this is a hurdle that any statewide GOP candidate would have to overcome.

Which of course, is also completely meaningless. When you look at voting results, and not voting registration, you see a picture that is, statistically speaking, more of a level playing field for Republicans running in Maryland; particularly a more-moderate, high-name ID Republican such as Bob Ehrlich. And, of course you need to look no further than the aforementioned Anne Arundel County to notice that a Democratic-majority county has elected this decade a Republican County Executive, Clerk of the Court, Register of Wills, two Circuit Court Judges who ousted Democratic appointees, three Judges of the Orphans Court, four of seven County Council Members, a majority of the Delegates, half of the State Senators, and gave two solid majorities to Bob Ehrlich and George W. Bush, and even one to John McCain.

What does this all mean? It means that voter registration numbers as a means of determining voter performance are completely useless......which was something Pagnucco could have learned had he read my analysis from six months ago, the last time he tried this argument.

If Democrats are hanging their hat on voter registration numbers to bail them out next year, Bob Ehrlich and the Republican Party may be in better shape that even we think...

Lines in the Sand

My RedMaryland colleague Michael Swartz has done some excellent analysis about the likely prospects of Congressional and Legislative reapportionment here in Maryland following the 2010 election. And some of it is not pretty. Based on some of the potential redistricting plans Michael found floated by "silver spring" on the Swing State Project website, we could be in for a huge problem here in Maryland.

Take a look at this Congressional District map:What do the inner DC suburbs have to do with Carroll County? What does Gibson Island have in common with District Heights? Nothing, but that's one of the many permutations that Democrats could concoct after the next year's census.

The legislative plans? Potentially worse:
Heavily gerrymandered districts designed to do Mike Miller's goal of "burying Republicans for forty years?" You betcha.

Anybody who has been around Maryland politics during this decade knows what can happy when it comes to the reapportionment process. And that is what makes the 2010 Gubernatorial election so vitally important to the state of Maryland. In Maryland the process is, more or less, completely controlled by the Governor. Once the Governor introduces his plan to the General Assembly, the General Assembly has forty-five days to pass their own redistricting plan or else the one that is proposed by the Governor is put into place. Of course, the likelihood of a majority of the General Assembly agreeing to the creation of district lines, particularly those for their own seats, when members of the Assembly are bound to find themselves in an uncomfortable position is relatively unlikely. So the likelihood of the plan proposed by whomever is Governor is 2011 being adopted is a relative certainty.

Now, rewind back to 2002 and the legislative and congressional plans introduced by Parris Glendening. The plans were introduced by the Governor and became law 45 days after their proposal due to the inability of the General Assembly to adopt its own plan. Glendening's plans presented us with laughably gerrymandered districts; you can see his Congressional Districting plan, which remains in effect today. However, his legislative districting plan was so onerous and ridiculous that it clearly did not meet the Constitutional requirements for legislative districting; some districts were not geographically congruous and many districts were clearly desgined to screw Glendening's political opponents. For example, six precincts from Baltimore County were mysteriously redistricted to District 31, across the Patapsco River in Anne Arundel County. I'm sure it was just a coincidence that State Senator Norm Stone lived in one of those six precincts. Because of such shenanigans, Glendening's plan was tossed out of court and replaced with today's court-imposed plan in late June 2002.

Now this brings us back to the importance of the 2010 Gubernatorial Election. The Governor has the power to create these legislative district lines. Which means the voters of Maryland have an opportunity, moreso than in most elections, to have major longstanding change on the makeup of the Maryland General Assembly. And there are two distinctive scenarios.

Scenario one sees Martin O'Malley reelected. And can you imagine the districts that this petulant Governor would come up with? Given O'Malley's ability to hold grudges and inability to lead, no legislator who has ever crossed O'Malley would be safe. Anne Arundel County, for example, would likely be shredded to pieces, with shared districts across county lines to force a Republican leaning county into districts with more sympathetically Democratic areas in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Howard, and Prince George's County. An O'Malley redistricting plan would strike a chilling blow against competitive government and the marketplace of ideas in Maryland.

Scenario two sees the election of a Republican governor next year. And it would be a tremendous opportunity for Maryland's middle and working class families to see positive change in Maryland. We would have the opportunity to see redistricting done in a manner that is more fair, more equitable, and more in line with the ideological leanings of Maryland voters. Furthermore, we may finally see redistricting done in the most fair manner of all, with the introduction of single member districts for the election of all 141 members of the House of Delegates. Not only would this see the elimination of the constitutionally questionable one, two, or three member districts depending on your location and subdistricting, but would also allow for a greater diversity of members being elected to the General Assembly. Not only would single member districts allow for a more ideologically-balanced House of Delegates, it would also create more majority-minority districts that would allow for a more accurate minority representation in Annapolis. All in all, legislative districts drawn by a Republican governor will be more fair and more accurately representative of Maryland's economic, ideologically, and cultural diversity than anything that will be drawn by a Maryland Democrat.

These districts are not just lines in the sand; they are the basic building blocks for the elected legislators who make decisions in Annapolis. We must seriously consider the consequences of redistricting as it relates to the 2010 election, and we must make sure that the voters understand what is at stake as we get closer to next November...

Whoops

This is just one of those moments where you just have to sit back and shake your head:

A state constitutional requirement that a gubernatorial candidate must be a registered voter in Maryland for five years could prevent Charles County Republican Central Committee Chairman Charles J. Lollar from seeking the state's highest office.....

....If Lollar opts to run for governor, he will have to prove his eligibility.

A candidate for governor or lieutenant governor "must have attained the age of thirty years, and must have been a resident and registered voter of the State for five years next immediately preceding his election," according to Article II, Section 5 of the Maryland Constitution.

OK, that's bad enough. But the story amazingly gets worse:

Lollar moved to Maryland from suburban Atlanta in October 2005 and submitted his voter registration application with his vehicle registration application shortly thereafter, he said.

However, a copy of his voter registration card on file at the Charles County Board of Elections obtained by the Maryland Independent shows he signed and dated his application on June 6, 2006. He maintained that the application was submitted right after he moved, but was not processed until the following June for unknown reasons.

It's almost like Republicans in our state are trying to find new and creative ways to embarrass themselves and the party these days....

Hopefully, Lollar will throw his hat into the Congressional race and not risk further dragging this story out for an even longer period of time. But I'm pretty curious to know why Lollar says he is going to be found eligible when the form he signed and dated appears to say otherwise.

The Governor needs to pay attention

How come it only ever seems like Governor O'Malley and his administration are surprised at the need for fiscal restraint, most recently shown through the announcement of an impending $700 million in cuts for the current fiscal year that would be coming down the pike?

How many times over the course of this economic downturn have Republicans, economists, and yes Maryland's conservative blogosphere, warned of the impending economic calamity from the imposition of O'Malleynomics here in Maryland? How many times did people note the folly of increasing discretionary spending during a budgetary deficit? How many times were Annapolis Democrats warned that drastic and immoral tax hikes during a recession would lead to a reduction in tax revenues (something that we have already seen this year)? How many times have people noted that the time Keynesian economics has passed, and its continued implementation would provide disastrous consequences to our state and its taxpayers?

Instead, Governor O'Malley insisted on continuing to raise taxes and to increase social spending in order to keep the coalition of interest groups that elected him in line. It's sad, it's objectionable, and it shows O'Malley's commitment to putting special interests ahead of the interests of Maryland's working and middle class families. Now, it looks like the Governor is actaully going to have to make cuts, which is a good thing except for one small fact.

O'Malley declined to detail specific cuts that he's considering but indicated it would be "impossible" to fully preserve budgeted spending for education, health and public safety because those areas comprise such a large part of the budget.

Two of those three are a severe problem, as two of the state's constitutional duties are to provide funding for public safety and for education. So instead of cutting spending or retreating on his silly list of 15 goals, he is going to really put the screws to the people and cut where it really hurts, presumably in a ruse designed to create popular support for a tax increase or to blame Bob Ehrlich for these cuts. Either way, O'Malley is (as usual) putting the political calculus ahead of the bottom line for Maryland's families.

I think the people are really starting to see through this charade. It is long past time that we return competent leadership to Annapolis. And Governor O'Malley is neither competent or a leader...

Not All Numbers Mean Something

Adam Pagnucco has spent this week trying to bury the State Republican Party due to changes in the voter registration numbers. The basic premise is that because the total number of registered Democrats in Maryland is increasing at a faster rate than the number of registered Republicans that the Republican Party is doomed.

However, the total number of registered party members in the state or in any particularly jurisdiction is relatively meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

Take a look, for example, at my home district of District 31. In that district, there are 1.6 Democratic registrants for every Republican registrant. Election results speak to any an entirely different set of circumstances. Last year, John McCain and Andy Harris both carried 58% of the vote in this district during the Presidential Election. And in 2006:

• Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele both won about 60% of the vote in the District.
• AG Candidate Scott Rolle and Comptroller Candidate Anne McCarthy both carried 31.
  
• Bryan Simonaire became the first Republican State Senator in the District;
• Don Dwyer, Nic Kipke, and Steve Schuh were elected as Delegates; the first GOP sweep of Distirct 31
• County Councilman Ron Dillon was re-elected without Democratic Opposition.
  

The point of this exercise is to prove that while voter registration numbers are a cute way to try and say a party is or is not dying, they are in no way the be all and end all of the situation. Maryland has had an overwhelming majority of voters registered as Democrats for a long time in a number of districts. But that has not stopped a lot of those districts from elecitng Republicans to serve in the General Assembly, and it hasn't stopped these voters from supporting Republican candidates over Democrats at the statewide level. You talk to a lot of these voters in districts like the 31st, and you find out that these voters are always voting Republican, they just choose not to change their registration for whatever reason.

Bottom line: a lot of these Democrats that Pagnucco likes to use to prove that the Republican Party is dead are actually supporting Republican candidates. With the continued incompetence of Governor O'Malley and Democratic Leadership, I have a feeling that the number of D's voting R is going to increase substantially in 2010....

Now it gets Interesting

For a long time I was discussing the likelihood that Comptroller Peter Franchot would challenge Governor O'Malley in next year's Democratic primary. Well, it looks like the Governor is going to get a challenge.....not from the left, but from the right according to the Sun:

George W. Owings III, a former Democratic delegate and party leader from Calvert County, is “actively considering a challenge” to Gov. Martin O’Malley in next year’s election, the former majority leader told The Baltimore Sun.

The 64-year-old Vietnam war hero from Dunkirk, who served on Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.’s cabinet, said he was “45 to 60 days” away from deciding whether to challenge O’Malley in the 2010 Democratic primary. He acknowledged that the odds of anyone unseating the incumbent governor “are very long.”.....

....After serving in the House of Delegates from 1988 to 2004, Owings was Ehrlich’s secretary of the Maryland Department of Veterans Affairs. A conservative Democrat, Owings said he believes the state party has “strayed from its working class roots” under O’Malley’s leadership.

The former mortgage banker said he began mulling a challenge after the governor pushed unpopular tax hikes through the General Assembly in 2007 in order to confront the massive structural budget deficit he inherited.

“I see a lot of good, solid working-class Democrats with serious concerns about the direction we are taking,” Owings said. He said he has “the mechanics in place” for an organized campaign, including “some guarantees of operating money” from a “loosely knit financing committee.”

This is the best piece of news that opponents of Governor O'Malley could possibly hear. A bruising Democratic primary means there is a pretty good chance that O'Malley will need to waste financial and political capital running against a fellow Democrat, while the Republican candidate will be able to criss-cross the state introducing themselves to voters and stay above the fray......assuming we united behind one candidate (which is an altogether separate problem with all of the competing interests amount the Bob Ehrlich, Charles Lollar, and Mike Pappas camps).

And Owings isn't the only one contemplating a challenge. Former Prince George's County Executive Wayne Curry may jump into the fray too. Even usually reliable Democratic quote machine Matthew Crenson even concedes the following to the Sun:

“Even if they’re not true, the fact that there are so many rumors suggests that O’Malley is perceived as vulnerable,” Crenson said.

This is a good sign, but let's not bet the ranch that this is the be all and end all of the 2010 Election, either. Sure, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend may have been morally wounded when she gave up 20-percent of the priamry vote to grocery store clerk Raymond Fustero in 2002, but remember that incumbent Governor Parris Glendening bowled right through then Harford County Executive Eileen Rehrmann and former Redskin Ray Schoenke in the primary in his 1998 re-election campaign.

This is a positive development that O'Malley is drawing potential primary challengers, but there is a lot of work for Republicans to do over the next 18 months for us to be able to draw any benefit from it...

WaPo sees the future

If you read the Washington Post this morning, you'd have thought that the 2010 Gubernatorial Election is over and that we lost:

Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley began last year at the nadir of his popularity, having just raised taxes. At year's end, he was weighing deep budget cuts likely to strain relations with key constituencies.

But along the way, O'Malley managed to rack up several political victories, in Maryland and beyond its borders, that appear to strengthen his hand heading into a widely expected reelection bid next year.

By substantial margins, Maryland voters approved two ballot measures in November backed by the governor, one legalizing five slot machine gambling sites and the other authorizing early voting in the next election. Voters' rejection of slots would have been a significant setback for O'Malley (D), and early voting should disproportionately help Democrats in a state where they enjoy a 2-to-1 advantage in party registration.

Both ballot measures were opposed by former governor and current radio host Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R), whose boosters would like to see a 2010 rematch with O'Malley.

The story also goes on to (rightly) note that O'Malley was bolstered by Frank Kratovil's election in the First District, something that also was bound to hurt Governor Ehrlich due to his ill-conceived strong embrace of Andy Harris.

Be that as it may, I think that it's hard to say that all of these things point to Martin O'Malley winning or losing in 2010:

• The slot machine question had little to do with the battle between O'Malley and Ehrlich. Yes, both men had their opinions and were in respective corners for the battle, bat it was hardy a matter of Democrats vs Republicans when you considered Peter Franchot's role in the anti-slots campaign, as well as the fierce opposition to slots by a number of liberal legislators and far left interest groups. Using the Post's logic, the defeat of slots could just as much be a repudiation of the far left as it is a leg up for O'Malley.
• Continuing with the similar theme, the overwhelming passage of Question 2 hardly counts for anything. There was very little, if any, organized campaigning for or against early voting, and quite frankly I think there wasn't much oxygen left for the issue to breath once you got passed slots and the Presidential election.
  
• With Kratovil, it's hard to say that his election will have any impact whatsoever on O'Malley. I think I have detailed my thoughts about the abominable campaign Harris ran enough, but when you consider this perfect storm, how does any of this help O'Malley in 2010?:
• A young Democratic Candidate who was easily packaged as a moderate; and
  
• Wayne Gilchrest's defeat in the Republican Primary; by
• The worst possible Republican candidate (Western Shore, very unlikeable) who ran a historically bad campaign; with
• Higher African-American turnout on the lower shore due to Obama.
  

At the same time, we still have an economy that is in free fall, partially due to the national recession and partially due to O'Malley's reckless and irresponsible spending and tax increases. And O'Malley and Company are still going to have to deal with that starting next week, and they are either going to wind up angering their rabid base through cutting spending, or angering everybody else in the state with even more tax hikes.

O'Malley had a reasonably successful 2008 at the Ballot Box, but projecting his victory in 2010 would be like predicting Maryland winning the ACC title in 2009 due to their Humanitarian Bowl win; completely meaningless and based on false premises.

I still think O'Malley is in trouble for re-election, whether or not he is primaried by Peter Franchot...